Will Microsoft beat Google and Amazon in combined second quarter cloud revenue?
Just to be clear on who’s # 1 in the cloud, at the end of the month we’ll see if Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services are finally able to have combined cloud revenue equal to or better than Microsoft for the second. trimester.
On my weekly Top 10 cloud wars rankings, Microsoft is the # 1 for a long time, Amazon has long been # 2, and Google cloud at the beginning of this year jumped to third place.
I offer this perspective to illustrate a few points:
- overall, the scale and remarkable growth rates of these 3 cloud powerhouses;
- the indisputably clear financial details revealing that Microsoft and not AWS is by far the largest cloud provider in the world; and
- how the needs and expectations of rapidly emerging customers are driving huge changes in what has become of the ‘cloud’ in 2021, as infrastructure is recognized as only part of the mix rather than the whole story.
It’s also pretty crazy to look at the market caps of these three companies and realize that Google is the little guy in this trio: Microsoft’s market cap is $ 2.1 trillion, Amazon’s is $ 2.1 trillion. 1.9 trillion dollars and Google’s is 1.7 trillion dollars.
Last quarter, here’s how the numbers turned out as presented in a chart that was part of our May 2 analysis of first quarter results called Microsoft Rules: First Quarter Cloud Revenue Larger Than Amazon, Google Combines:
As we consider how the calculations might go for the second quarter, please keep in mind that this quarter has special significance for every business:
- for Microsoft, these 3 months are its fourth fiscal quarter, and over the past few years, Satya Nadella and her company have shown that they like to end their fiscal year by exceeding all expectations;
- for Amazon, June 30 was the last day for Andy Jassy as CEO of AWS (he is now CEO of the entire Amazon empire) and the AWS team undoubtedly wanted to deliver a quarter decisive in recognition of its founder and long-time leader; and
- for Google Cloud, a big question is whether it can continue to achieve the very difficult feat of pushing its growth rate higher every quarter, even if its revenue base increases considerably: can it exceed 47%?
Google Cloud’s huge growth rates are largely due to its aggressive expansion beyond infrastructure and deeper into databases, analytics, its Anthos multicloud platform, and industry-specific solutions. .
Microsoft has led the way in delivering cloud solutions for every part of what Nadella calls customer ‘digital domains’, and recently underscored this growing focus by unifying under one leader the previous separate business units of Dynamics 365, Power Platform. , Industries, Data, AI and Mixed Reality now report to Company Vice President Alysa Taylor. For more information on this, please see Microsoft reorganization merges data and AI with apps and industries.
Amazon has pretty much stayed out of the apps category, but with new CEO Adam Selipsky on board, and with this segment having huge potential as well as a grip for so many other cloud services, we shouldn’t be. surprised to see Amazon start pushing more apps to meet growing customer demand.
Here is my rough guess on how the Q2 digits will come out:
- Microsoft: Commercial Cloud Revenue of $ 19.1 Billion
- Amazon: AWS revenue of $ 14.5 billion
- Google Cloud: $ 4.7 billion in revenue
- AWS + Google Cloud: $ 19.2 billion
So, I guess Microsoft’s race to have more Amazon and Google Cloud combined cloud revenue will end when the Q2 numbers are released.
It’s extremely tight, but I think Amazon and Google Cloud will cross that threshold once and for all.